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BOM 'predicts' a hot Summer in Australia

BOM have just announced on the ABC News radio that they think the upcoming Summer will be very hot with lots of heat waves.

Now, the trouble with all this is that we may indeed have a heat wave on the way; but it is somewhat disingenuous of BOM to mix what are predicted heat waves with what has actually occurred. It's rather like calling the results of a race before it has finished.

There is also the problem of 'which temperature' is being measured - if they are measuring the temperature in the middle of Perth for instance, then the 'Urban Heat Island' effect could be largely to blame for the record more than anything else - e.g. black tarmac and brick buildings trap heat in a location far better than trees and forest - so temperature measurements in such urban locations have an upward bias. This is a well known effect.

By all means warn people that it will be hot in Summer (duh!), but do not fall into the trap of calling highs and record temperatures well before they could happen. The UK Met Office have got caught fowl doing this crystal ball predicting many times before, I would have thought the BOM would have been above this.