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prediction, Tag
- The Future of U.S. Weather Prediction Will Be Decided During the Next Month Tue, 28 Jan 20, 9:00pmReposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog During the next few weeks, leadership in NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will make a key decision regarding...
- 2019 ENSO forecast Fri, 5 Apr 19, 11:36amby Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions,...
- What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios Fri, 29 Mar 19, 3:35amby Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible? This post is Part II in the possibility series (for an explanation of the possibilistic approach, see previous post link). This paper also follows up on a recent series...
- Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation Wed, 15 Aug 18, 12:12amby Javier Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past...
- The Hansen forecasts 30 years later Wed, 4 Jul 18, 1:10amby Ross McKitrick and John Christy How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR article forecasts of global warming? According to a laudatory article by AP’s Seth Borenstein, they “pretty...
- Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change Fri, 29 Jun 18, 6:32amby Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change Summary: For the past decade anthropogenic emissions have slowed down, and continuation of current trends suggests a peak in emissions by 2050...
- Beyond ENSO: new signals of seasonal to interannual predictability Fri, 8 Jun 18, 7:13amby Judith Curry My new talk on improving seasonal to interannual climate predictions. This week, I am attending the Weather Risk Management Conference (WRMA) in Miami. Utility of climate forecasts for risk mgt In providing...
- ENSO forecast for 2018 Fri, 6 Apr 18, 8:37amby Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry Attempting to breach the ENSO springtime ‘predictability barrier.’ The springtime predictability barrier in ENSO predictions (Webster and Yang 1992) arises from stochastic...
- JLI First Forecasts Thu, 13 Feb 14, 10:30amImage Credit: Walter Dnes By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts In a recent post I introduced The “January Leading Indicator“. At that time, there were some concerns expressed. The attached spreadsheet...
- Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat Fri, 22 Nov 13, 8:44am‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et...
- Like ‘the pause’ in surface temperatures, ‘the slump’ in solar activity continues Fri, 13 Sep 13, 10:33pmThe NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has been a dud...
- CET cooling in line with solar model prediction Mon, 3 Jun 13, 11:47pmYesterday, WUWT carried the headline: Coldest Spring In England Since 1891. This essay offers what could be an explanation for it. Judge for yourself. – Anthony Guest essay by David Archibald Back in 2006, I published...
- Tropical lizards safe from climate change forced extinction Sat, 18 May 13, 5:23amSome good news from Dartmouth College Climate change may have little impact on tropical lizards Dartmouth study contradicts predictions of widespread extinction A new Dartmouth College study finds human-caused climate change...
- In retrospect, we ‘predicted’ global warming would slow Tue, 14 May 13, 10:00pmReader Markx writes: The title says it all here: “…Retrospective prediction…” indeed. How could a researcher keep a straight face and write such a title? (Maybe a subversive element at work?) Retrospective prediction...
- Finally, a climate forecast model that works? Fri, 25 Jan 13, 7:59amNote: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank Lemke The Global Warming Prediction Project is an impartial,...